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FXSnipers Quantitative Desk Series

Weekend Gap Fill Strategy

Forex • GBPUSD, EURUSD, XAUUSD • M15 • Mean Reversion
Monday Open & Asian/London Overlap
22:00 - 12:00 UTC
Complexity: Intermediate
Max Risk 0.5% - 1.0% maximum equity risk per trade.
Target R:R Scaled targets: 50% of position closed at 50% gap fill, final 50% closed at 100% gap fill (Friday's close).
Break-Even Trigger Move stop loss to breakeven immediately once the first partial profit target (50% gap fill) is reached.
Automation Rule-dependent

Pre-Trade Verification Checklist

Calculate Weekend Gap: Measure distance between Friday close and Sunday open prices.
Validate ATR Boundaries: Confirm gap size sits strictly between 0.3x and 1.5x of Daily ATR(14).
Wait for Spread Normalization: Allow at least 30 minutes to pass post-open to avoid wide spreads.
Check Momentum & RSI Trigger: Verify M15 close direction toward Friday's close alongside RSI(14) crossing 50.
Execute with Risk Parameters: Place stop loss at gap extreme + 0.2x ATR buffer and set scaled take-profit targets.

Entry Execution Criteria

  1. At Monday open, measure the price difference (gap) between Friday's close and the Sunday/Monday opening price.
  2. Ensure the gap size is between 0.3x and 1.5x of the current daily ATR(14).
  3. Wait 30 minutes after the market open for spreads to normalize, then enter in the direction of the gap fill on the first M15 candle close back toward Friday's close, provided RSI(14) crosses the 50 level in the direction of the fill.

Take-Profit & Target Exit

  • Take 50% partial profit when price reaches the 50% midpoint of the gap, and simultaneously move the stop loss to breakeven.
  • Take final profit at Friday's closing price (complete gap fill) or automatically close all remaining exposure by Tuesday 12:00 UTC regardless of fill status.

Invalidation & Emergency Exit

  • If the gap size is less than 0.3x ATR (insufficient profit potential) or greater than 1.5x ATR (breakaway risk), do not trade.
  • If price continues to expand away from Friday's close past the gap extreme plus buffer before an entry trigger occurs, void the setup.
Stop-Loss Positioning

Placed beyond the extreme of the weekend gap (Sunday open or Friday close extreme) plus an additional 0.2x ATR buffer.

Documented & Formatted by FXSnipers Strategy Lab • fxsnipers.com/strategy-lab/weekend-gap-fill-strategy
Desk Cheat Sheet Specification v1.0